Modelling a two-peak hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreak caused by enterovirus A71 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in 2023.
HFMD data from 2013 - 2023
Time - series epidemic curve of HFMD in Ho Chi Minh from 2017 - 2023
Epidemic curve of HFMD in Ho Chi Minh (you can double - click on the legend to display a specific year)
Age structure analysis
To analyze age structure, we will look at the age distribution of cases as a function of time either continuous variable or binary variable (first peak and second peak), and space (commune or district).
Age distribution of cases as a function of binary time variable (first peak and second peak)
| Characteristic | 1st peak, N = 20,3581 | 2nd peak, N = 23,0141 |
|---|---|---|
| age | 2.65 (1.78, 3.73) | 2.39 (1.55, 3.72) |
| 1 Median (IQR) | ||
Data description
| Characteristic | 2013, N = 8,0781 | 2014, N = 10,0431 | 2015, N = 8,7291 | 2016, N = 5,7401 | 2017, N = 30,8251 | 2018, N = 39,3521 | 2019, N = 28,4861 | 2020, N = 16,3981 | 2021, N = 9,7721 | 2022, N = 19,1651 | 2023, N = 43,3801 | 2024, N = 7,3971 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | NA (NA, NA) | NA (NA, NA) | NA (NA, NA) | NA (NA, NA) | 1.84 (1.21, 2.80) | 1.95 (1.22, 3.04) | 1.85 (1.18, 2.90) | 1.83 (1.18, 2.79) | 2.21 (1.42, 3.28) | 2.25 (1.48, 3.29) | 2.54 (1.68, 3.72) | 2.35 (1.38, 3.54) |
| Gender | ||||||||||||
| Female | 3,159 (39%) | 4,070 (41%) | 3,617 (41%) | 2,391 (42%) | 12,982 (42%) | 16,815 (43%) | 12,196 (43%) | 6,944 (42%) | 4,123 (42%) | 7,950 (41%) | 18,461 (43%) | 3,121 (42%) |
| Male | 4,919 (61%) | 5,973 (59%) | 5,112 (59%) | 3,349 (58%) | 17,843 (58%) | 22,537 (57%) | 16,290 (57%) | 9,454 (58%) | 5,649 (58%) | 11,215 (59%) | 24,919 (57%) | 4,276 (58%) |
| District | ||||||||||||
| 1 | 157 (1.9%) | 174 (1.7%) | 156 (1.8%) | 96 (1.7%) | 632 (2.1%) | 688 (1.7%) | 592 (2.1%) | 278 (1.7%) | 163 (1.7%) | 383 (2.0%) | 707 (1.6%) | 121 (1.6%) |
| 10 | 240 (3.0%) | 270 (2.7%) | 234 (2.7%) | 145 (2.5%) | 912 (3.0%) | 944 (2.4%) | 813 (2.9%) | 265 (1.6%) | 226 (2.3%) | 492 (2.6%) | 947 (2.2%) | 149 (2.0%) |
| 11 | 272 (3.4%) | 343 (3.4%) | 282 (3.2%) | 210 (3.7%) | 836 (2.7%) | 937 (2.4%) | 692 (2.4%) | 347 (2.1%) | 272 (2.8%) | 434 (2.3%) | 984 (2.3%) | 149 (2.0%) |
| 12 | 398 (4.9%) | 590 (5.9%) | 422 (4.8%) | 266 (4.6%) | 2,006 (6.5%) | 2,391 (6.1%) | 1,967 (6.9%) | 1,198 (7.3%) | 554 (5.7%) | 1,243 (6.5%) | 3,108 (7.2%) | 534 (7.2%) |
| 3 | 148 (1.8%) | 174 (1.7%) | 187 (2.1%) | 102 (1.8%) | 684 (2.2%) | 708 (1.8%) | 631 (2.2%) | 290 (1.8%) | 175 (1.8%) | 420 (2.2%) | 693 (1.6%) | 107 (1.4%) |
| 4 | 184 (2.3%) | 205 (2.0%) | 204 (2.3%) | 114 (2.0%) | 707 (2.3%) | 784 (2.0%) | 642 (2.3%) | 435 (2.7%) | 233 (2.4%) | 561 (2.9%) | 771 (1.8%) | 138 (1.9%) |
| 5 | 250 (3.1%) | 289 (2.9%) | 238 (2.7%) | 127 (2.2%) | 648 (2.1%) | 690 (1.8%) | 533 (1.9%) | 212 (1.3%) | 168 (1.7%) | 380 (2.0%) | 630 (1.5%) | 120 (1.6%) |
| 6 | 426 (5.3%) | 438 (4.4%) | 437 (5.0%) | 270 (4.7%) | 1,196 (3.9%) | 1,383 (3.5%) | 1,006 (3.5%) | 534 (3.3%) | 415 (4.2%) | 579 (3.0%) | 1,212 (2.8%) | 224 (3.0%) |
| 7 | 302 (3.7%) | 347 (3.5%) | 301 (3.4%) | 188 (3.3%) | 1,474 (4.8%) | 1,654 (4.2%) | 1,316 (4.6%) | 724 (4.4%) | 423 (4.3%) | 929 (4.8%) | 1,950 (4.5%) | 321 (4.3%) |
| 8 | 793 (9.8%) | 883 (8.8%) | 803 (9.2%) | 706 (12%) | 2,310 (7.5%) | 2,427 (6.2%) | 1,718 (6.0%) | 1,037 (6.3%) | 738 (7.6%) | 1,352 (7.1%) | 2,400 (5.5%) | 476 (6.4%) |
| Bình Chánh | 832 (10%) | 909 (9.1%) | 919 (11%) | 541 (9.4%) | 2,056 (6.7%) | 4,343 (11%) | 2,225 (7.8%) | 2,116 (13%) | 1,334 (14%) | 1,111 (5.8%) | 4,804 (11%) | 965 (13%) |
| Bình Tân | 737 (9.1%) | 1,051 (10%) | 839 (9.6%) | 554 (9.7%) | 2,771 (9.0%) | 4,850 (12%) | 2,912 (10%) | 1,999 (12%) | 1,455 (15%) | 1,544 (8.1%) | 4,602 (11%) | 795 (11%) |
| Bình Thạnh | 315 (3.9%) | 310 (3.1%) | 248 (2.8%) | 149 (2.6%) | 1,435 (4.7%) | 1,818 (4.6%) | 1,417 (5.0%) | 774 (4.7%) | 385 (3.9%) | 1,026 (5.4%) | 1,967 (4.5%) | 335 (4.5%) |
| Cần Giờ | 74 (0.9%) | 89 (0.9%) | 36 (0.4%) | 32 (0.6%) | 334 (1.1%) | 275 (0.7%) | 304 (1.1%) | 96 (0.6%) | 42 (0.4%) | 186 (1.0%) | 477 (1.1%) | 57 (0.8%) |
| Củ Chi | 299 (3.7%) | 517 (5.1%) | 614 (7.0%) | 477 (8.3%) | 1,898 (6.2%) | 1,579 (4.0%) | 1,163 (4.1%) | 537 (3.3%) | 425 (4.3%) | 936 (4.9%) | 1,966 (4.5%) | 388 (5.2%) |
| Gò Vấp | 352 (4.4%) | 529 (5.3%) | 389 (4.5%) | 228 (4.0%) | 1,551 (5.0%) | 1,806 (4.6%) | 1,423 (5.0%) | 822 (5.0%) | 324 (3.3%) | 996 (5.2%) | 2,616 (6.0%) | 412 (5.6%) |
| Hóc Môn | 460 (5.7%) | 613 (6.1%) | 449 (5.1%) | 255 (4.4%) | 1,675 (5.4%) | 1,961 (5.0%) | 1,408 (4.9%) | 727 (4.4%) | 424 (4.3%) | 914 (4.8%) | 2,037 (4.7%) | 334 (4.5%) |
| Nhà Bè | 197 (2.4%) | 232 (2.3%) | 173 (2.0%) | 154 (2.7%) | 866 (2.8%) | 1,106 (2.8%) | 933 (3.3%) | 480 (2.9%) | 249 (2.5%) | 713 (3.7%) | 1,434 (3.3%) | 260 (3.5%) |
| Phú Nhuận | 120 (1.5%) | 157 (1.6%) | 87 (1.0%) | 62 (1.1%) | 412 (1.3%) | 545 (1.4%) | 442 (1.6%) | 241 (1.5%) | 123 (1.3%) | 398 (2.1%) | 628 (1.4%) | 85 (1.1%) |
| Tân Bình | 456 (5.6%) | 440 (4.4%) | 339 (3.9%) | 194 (3.4%) | 1,582 (5.1%) | 1,764 (4.5%) | 1,368 (4.8%) | 581 (3.5%) | 362 (3.7%) | 975 (5.1%) | 1,837 (4.2%) | 245 (3.3%) |
| Tân Phú | 363 (4.5%) | 502 (5.0%) | 493 (5.6%) | 315 (5.5%) | 1,673 (5.4%) | 2,293 (5.8%) | 1,542 (5.4%) | 740 (4.5%) | 528 (5.4%) | 1,068 (5.6%) | 2,340 (5.4%) | 316 (4.3%) |
| Thủ Đức | 703 (8.7%) | 981 (9.8%) | 879 (10%) | 555 (9.7%) | 3,167 (10%) | 4,406 (11%) | 3,439 (12%) | 1,965 (12%) | 754 (7.7%) | 2,525 (13%) | 5,270 (12%) | 866 (12%) |
| Treatment | ||||||||||||
| Death | 2 (<0.1%) | 1 (<0.1%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
| Discharge | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 4,817 (16%) | 5,245 (13%) | 2,427 (8.5%) | 1,111 (6.8%) | 488 (5.0%) | 871 (4.5%) | 1,174 (2.7%) | 299 (4.0%) |
| Inpatient | 8,076 (100%) | 10,042 (100%) | 8,729 (100%) | 5,740 (100%) | 510 (1.7%) | 1,805 (4.6%) | 1,702 (6.0%) | 1,585 (9.7%) | 1,219 (12%) | 1,355 (7.1%) | 5,598 (13%) | 949 (13%) |
| Others | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 9 (<0.1%) | 3 (<0.1%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 2 (<0.1%) | 11 (<0.1%) | 2 (<0.1%) |
| Outpatient | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 25,483 (83%) | 32,281 (82%) | 24,350 (85%) | 13,692 (83%) | 8,063 (83%) | 16,920 (88%) | 36,540 (84%) | 6,140 (83%) |
| Transfer | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 6 (<0.1%) | 18 (<0.1%) | 7 (<0.1%) | 10 (<0.1%) | 2 (<0.1%) | 17 (<0.1%) | 57 (0.1%) | 7 (<0.1%) |
| 1 Median (IQR); n (%) | ||||||||||||
Age distribution of cases as a function of continuous time variable (first peak and second peak)
I did two types of analysis: heat map and sliding window (time-varying mean age and [25th,75th] quartile).
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
Annual analysis
2017
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2018
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2019
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2020
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2021
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2022
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2023
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
Spatial distribution
Reading layer `ADM_ADM_2' from data source
`D:\OUCRU\HCDC\project phân tích sero quận huyện\gadm41_VNM.gpkg'
using driver `GPKG'
Simple feature collection with 710 features and 13 fields
Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
Dimension: XY
Bounding box: xmin: 102.1446 ymin: 8.381355 xmax: 109.4692 ymax: 23.39269
Geodetic CRS: WGS 84
district n1 n2
1 1 352 355
2 10 484 462
3 11 492 492
4 12 1942 1166
5 3 346 347
6 4 370 401
7 5 321 309
8 6 572 640
9 7 957 993
10 8 1126 1274
11 Bình Chánh 2512 2290
12 Bình Thạnh 935 1032
13 Bình Tân 2490 2111
14 Cần Giờ 136 341
15 Củ Chi 896 1070
16 Gò Vấp 1521 1095
17 Hóc Môn 1305 732
18 Nhà Bè 695 739
19 Phú Nhuận 323 305
20 Thủ Đức 2906 2360
21 Tân Bình 1003 834
22 Tân Phú 1330 1010